What is a Laker GM to do when the gods worship the rising sun, not the setting sun?

Posted by: SPQR on Jun 15, 2012 - 03:51 PM
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In the year 410 AD, the Gothic King Alaric laid siege to what was left of the western capital of the once mighty Roman Empire. A former ally of Rome, Alaric wanted land to settle his men, grain, gold and silver paid in tribute to him. The Roman Emperor Honorius refused these demands. Alaric decided to attack the city and succeeded in entering it through subterfuge. For two days his men sacked, burned and pillaged the city that had epitomized total Roman dominance and control over the western world for centuries.

Although the final end of the Western Roman Empire is accepted as 476 AD, it was the sack of Rome by the Goths in 410 that signaled the real end to the greatness that had been Rome. An era had passed and mighty nation that had once been unstoppable against all its foes for centuries was finally brought to its knees and eventually eradicated into stories for the history books.

One can’t help but wonder what the Roman’s who had ruled so long, for generations, thought as they looked down the Palatine hill to the hords of barbarians they knew would eventually enter their city. What thoughts must have crossed their minds as they knew their civilization, their dominance, their history, their accomplishments were at an end, their way of life over, forever.

And in 2012, the Lakers, once the unstoppable rulers of the NBA who crushed all in their path for the second year in a row finds them beaten; sieged, attacked and sacked by the Oklahoma Thunder. On the heels of last year’s loss to Dallas, it cannot be dismissed as one time event, a blip on the radar of Lakers control, but a pattern of defeat that spells the passing of an era.

And one must wonder, after years of iron fisted control of our enemies and the NBA landscape, with the barbarians pillaging burning and sacking our city, what is going through the mind of Jerry Buss, his son and Mitch Kupchak as the watch the Lakers Empire fall?

This year, for the first time, none of the great powers in the east or west made the finals. Those formally great teams-Dallas, LA, San Antonio, Boston-with their great but aging leaders-Nowitskie, Kobe, Duncan, Ginobilli, Allen, Garnett, Peirce-all find themselves defeated, on the outside, looking in as two younger, stronger teams led by new, fresher stars-Durant, James, Westbrook, Wade, Harding, Bosh- complete head to head for supremacy of the league. This year, truly, it was the passing of the torch from one era of basketball to another different era.

And if you are running the front office of the Lakers, the most important question that can be asked is: What is a Lakers GM to do?

With the sack of Rome, Imperial power was broken forever. Rome was never able to reconstitute itself and revive past glories. It became but a memory of itself, tales to be told in words and books of what once was. And for the Lakers, as they face the new reality, they must decide what is best, wisest course of action to take in light of the events of last year and this year.

There are two distinct and different paths they can take. The can try to engineer a revanchist strategy, attempt to rebuild and reconfigure around Kobe Bryant, try to trade this guy for that guy, that guy for this guy and hope to build, quickly, a team that can compete with Miami and OKC. This is what San Antonio has tried to do around Tim Duncan and Ginobilli for the last five years with varying degrees of success. This year, after many false starts, it seemed they had finally built a super team to compete. And in actuality, I suspect they did. But the problem is, they still ran into another super team, OKC, that had younger, better superstars. And there is a lesson in that failure. No matter how much you successfully reconfigure (something that may not happen for us even as well as SA did it) you can’t make up that crucial difference when your superstar (s) is on a downward spiral and the other teams super stars are rising. Back when Rome was at the height of her powers, so strong it was impervious to any foe, the young, ascending general Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus (Pompey the Great) told the old, ailing general and Dictator Lucius Cornelius Sulla, “The people worship the rising sun over the setting sun.” His message was clear.

Pompey was right. They do. And in the field of athletic endeavor, the sports gods will eventually worship the rising stars over the setting ones.

So the Lakers can attempt to do what San Antonio has tried so hard to do the last five years. Somehow reconfigure this Lakers team, with its limited assets for trade and tons of money committed to Kobe in attempt to somehow become better than Miami and OKC. All in the window of the few years left to Kobe, even as his abilities continue to wan while Durant, Wesbrook, Harding, Ibaka only gets better. If this seems a virtual impossibility to you, then you understand why I eschew that venue as tantamount to hopeless fantasy. It is why I advocate the GM of the Lakers to take the different, harder in the short term but wiser in the long term route.

That route entails completely blowing up this team, populating it with inferior cheap players, bottoming out, getting in the draft lottery and awaiting the departure, one way or another of Kobe. We would trade all the old veterans: Pau, Metta, Blake, Barnes for any and all draft picks we can get. We would replace these players with nobodies for the minimum salary. We would bottom out as a team and miss the playoffs. But we would ensure getting the type of high draft picks we need to start the rebuilding process in the climb back to championship contention. The only players I would keep, barring the event that we got some amazing trade value for them that we would insane not to take, are Drew, Goudelock and perhaps Ebanks.

Now of course, if we did this there is a high likely hood the Kobe would not find this acceptable and demand a trade. At that point, I would accommodate him. To say it coldly but bluntly, the faster Kobe leaves and takes his salary with him, the faster the rebuilding process can start. If Kobe decides he wants to play out his years here, even with a depleted team, fine, let him finish up as a Laker. I have no problem with it. But if he decides he must go, then let it happen.

With my plan, there is the obvious downside: two or more bad years of ball. Yes, it will be hard to watch. But the upside is apparent too, for those who are patient. We will get draft picks from the trades. We will stock pile them. On top of that, we will enter the lottery where we can have the chance to get players who someday can be the future Durants, or Lebrons, or Wades, or Westbrooks. That is where you find and get those types of players. At the top of the draft. Finally, if Kobe leaves immediately you can trade him for high draft picks. Or for a great player. If Kobe stays, when he leaves, you can use his salary to bring in a top quality free agent or several very good players. If the FO is smart, if they do their homework, within three to five years, the Lakers should have enough exceptional talent to go with Drew that they should be able to seriously complete for titles again. Not only will our team be populated by bright, young, athletic stars, but those of Miami and OKC will find themselves aging, with much tread worn off those tires that are so new right now.

In my view, if LA makes trades in a futile attempt to return to the old Lakers Empire, to try win another ring with the aging Bryant, then we will be spinning our wheels, wasting time and opportunity to make this unpleasant process go as quickly as possible. And that would be a big mistake that will draw this process out much longer than it should.

In the end, each of must decide what they think is the best path for the future. If you honestly think somehow the aging Bryant can lead a reconfigured team over Durant and Lebron’s teams, then you would go with method one, the one San Antonio has tried. If you think trying that is really reaching for the impossible dream, then you would opt for the second method, the one I choose. Each of us has our own thoughts on whether this team can still win a title. Since I don’t see any way a reconfigured Lakers team led by a 34 or older Bryant in the future will win a title, there really is only one option I think is the smart one.

Unlike the Roman Empire, in sports, teams go on. They are not completely eradicated from the earth even when they are beaten. The Lakers are not gone like the Roman Empire, just not what they were. But like Rome back in 410, they are at a crossroads in their history. The question becomes, which is the smartest, best way to return to the former years of glory?

Which is it that you think? How would you approach this crossroads? What path would you take? I have also put a poll on the top of the page for those who wish to vote.