I think you are underestimating the Rockets. They had a coaching change (Adelman for Van Gundy) which will help them more then you think. Last year, this team should have beaten the Jazz but they fell short in 7 games. Remember, Yao Ming was being considered an MVP before he got hurt last year.

You mentioned that the 4th spot is up for grabs, but realisticaly every single spot is. I think injuries will dictate the standings eventually, here's how my outlook would be:

1 Spurs - After such a dominating playoffs, I don't think they will start slow this year. 64W

2 Mavs - They still have a pretty deep team and their chemistry will be their. I rather think that Golden State caught fire rather then the Mavs choking. 62W

3 Suns - Nash is so very important to them and the slightest decline will hurt this team. For 3 straight years he has peaked and I wouldn't predict a 4th straight year given his age and back problems. 60W

4 Jazz - They have solid depth from point to center and if AK snaps out of his funk, then they could be a lock for at least 4th. 56W

5 Rockets - T Mac and Ming are undependable when it comes to health but I think they have a bunch of guys who can score now and their coach helps too. 54 W

6 Nuggets - Melo will be great, Iverson might decline a bit, but I don't think this team has the dicipline to be better then the teams above. 52 W

7 Lakers - They have really good depth from point to center which hopefully will be usefull during a long season, plus Kobe won't allow them to miss the playoffs. 45 W

8 Grizzlies - I think they have a really young solid starting lineup with 2 players in their prime in Gassol and Miller and other young star quality players like Conley, Gay, Warrick, and Milicic helping them out. 44 W

Honerable Mention:

Hornets - Most likely to leap in the playoff picture as long as they get a healthy year out of CP3. 42 W

Warriors - I see last year being a fluke, I think they will resort back to the old ways. 39 W

All I say is rankings don't matter. The team that plays the best in the playoffs will be the champs.

Dallas will choke again.

rankings do matter; the team that has the greatest advantage has the better chance of playing well in the playoffs. Home court advantage allows your crowd to pick you up more so if you are going through tough times whereas if you're away you have to rely strictly on your teammates passion to pick you up. so rankings do have a good effect on advantage. that being said my rankings of the west by record and not with the division projection stands as...

1.) Dallas- Dallas will want to come out the gates proving that they are better than a first tound exit and that motivation will get them a good record. too bad they will not win the Championship seeing as though they have no clutch superstar to get them through tough games; Dirk has showed that time and again that he lacks that ability... 62 wins

2.) San Antonio- They try to make a push for division leader in a race with Dallas towards the end but fall short. but being that their players are well rested from the summer and have much depth they grab the second best record... 59 wins

3.) Denver- I think the chemistry will be there this year. their post defense is probably the best in the league. they will have Nene being a force on the block and Kenyon brings another scoring deminsion... 58 wins

4.) Phoenix- same record as Denver but Denver wins the tie breaker from claiming the season series. Phoenix will probably start out really hot this comming year. but with Nash aging and with Barbosa and Stoudamire both in international competition their legs will begin to tire as the season progresses especially because of their high pace offense. then counting in the small break from playoffs to international play. they will start to break down after the 20 game mark and then pick their play back up after the All-Star break...58 wins

5.) Utah- with the progresion of Deron Williams they will be more efficient as a team. AK47 will find his role after last years struggle and will also have more touches now that Fish is gone from the team. This team improves from last years because of the improvements of their younger guys like Paul Milsap and and their other younger players...56 wins

6.) Houston- Though they have added some big names to their guard position and have seemed to improve the guys they've added are all isolation scorers. their main guy in Tracy McGrady is also an Isolation scorer. The many guards calling for playing time also stunts the growth of Luther Head. This team looks good on a videogame but in real life are either a 6th or 7th seed, depending on the team behing them. They haven't a great player at the PF position thus making it easier to get Yao Ming in foul trouble. This team may be one that sees a lot of bickering and complaining to the media about playing time and scoring opportunities. they will self implode... 49 wins

7.) LA Lakers- What more can be said they have improve some but not enough to content for a top spot. they have a great player in Kobe who will do this year what he started out doing last year, distribute the ball more. Kobe will be a little quicker this year and will as a result be more fluid allowing him to get more steals and also to split more double teams. Lamar has something to prove and will start this year like last year and will give out All-Star numbers but due to lack of popularity may not make it in. He will put out 19pts 10rebs 4.5asts, which is around what he was getting before he went down last year. Bynum though angry at Kobe's words will channel that aggresion and harness it to put up good starting center numbers: averaging 14pts 9rebs 1.8blks. The bench will be improved and the point guard position is stable. the lakers depending on injuries to both them and Houston will get to the 6th or 7th spot... 48 wins

8.) NO- Chris Paul is going to come out more improved then last year. they've added another offensive option in Mo Pete and let's not forget before Paul went out with an injury last year they were in the 8th spot. They have Tyson Chandler, Peja, and Desmond Mason. They are an athletic bunch that also has some good shooters. Paul will be able to get this team into the playoffs through proper court management and team efficiancy... 43 wins

9.) Wild Cards- The wild cards seem to be three teams in my opinion. you have Memphis who seem to have a playoff team but they have very little experience. Golden State has Baron Davis but lets not forget he is possibly the most injury prone star in the league and their small ball may be put to the test with the improvement of big men and big guards in the league and in the west. My other team may come as a surprise, they are the Kings of Queens from Sac Town. They have two experienced veterans in Artest and Bibby and with a young guy in Kevin Martin who improves with each year. They have a solid big man in Brad Miller. They can do some things and if they get their mood rings on the right color they can get themselves into the playoffs. But one thing all these wild cards for the 8th spot have in common is IF they all may be able to be successful IF they can get something together. They will all finish in the race with around 39-44 wins.

warren, you need to stop smoking the chronic...you are high to think we are going to get the 4th seed..all the others teams have improved their personnel...we have not....we have made some tinkerings....no major changes...we are more of a 7or 8 on a good day..

i think denver has a pretty good chance. they've got a very solid roster; if they had some chemistry, they'd be a great offensive team.

AI, Melo, Camby, Nene, K-mart, Najera, JR Smith, even our old buddy Chucky Atkins. they could definitely be a 4th place team. like a toned down version of the suns, but that's only because they lack team chemistry, which should improve next season.