THE INDIANA PACERS (and why a deal w/ us is imminent)

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warrenweelim
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Repped High Quality Post

If I projected it correctly, here's how the rotation works:

PG - Daniels / Tinsley / Greene / Diener

SG - Dunleavy / Rush

SF - Granger / Shawne Williams

PF - Murphy / Diogu

C - Oneal / Foster / Harrison

Stephen Graham, Andre Owens

As far as I am concerned, on paper and on court this is not a good team. The contracts of the players are ugly and they do not own a draft pick this year. They need to do something.

Indiana's cap situation is pretty much like that of Minny's. A discontent max-paid star, 3 overpaid starters and a thin bench. What is worse is they have no draft picks this year to even hint a glimmer of hope.

Jermaine Oneal is owed an ave salary of 21.5M over the next 3 years while the supporting cast of Tinsley, Dunleavy and Murphy are locked-in for the next 4 years with a combined ave salary of 27M. Add in the contract of Marquis Daniels, 20M in 3 years, Bird has his hands full on this team that has not even made the playoffs.

Now he talks highly of Shawne Williams, Danny Granger, Ike Diogu. What does that mean? Does it mean the "core" is changing? What about talking about the veterans being able to carry this team to the playoffs? On this note, it becomes obvious that Bird is more interested in a trade w/ the Lakers than he admits.

Now comes the comments made by JO in the charity game. It is clearer than the light of day what JO wants. He wants to play for LA alongside Kobe. Combine this with the salary cap burden that his contract provides, what do you think would be the sanest thing to do?

Troy Murphy is owed 42 in 4, Dunleavy is owed 38 in 4, Tinsley is owed 28 in 4. Indiana is already asking for Bynum and Odom for the services of JO. While it might seem like they hold the aces, reality is, leverage is with us. We can choose to stand pat and still be a fine team while Indiana will only get worse. Day-by-day the odds of them dealing from a position of strength diminishes.

Once more we tread the dangerous territory of assumptions. If Indy decides to deal JO alone, it would have to include both Odom and Bynum. If Indy decides they are lowering the asking price, then they would at least have one ugly contract taken out from their payroll. Which is which? Troy Murphy has the ugliest of the 4, Dunleavy is pretty close and Tinsley is cheaper but is a head case. Take your pick.

Now lets consider some things as well: If Odom is traded to Indy, he will seek a 3-year extension. (I estimate it at 40M). Should Indiana insist on Odom, they will not experience any cap relief anytime within the next 4-5 years. I can hardly imagine this being the case of a small market team.

It would therefore make more sense for Indiana to package JO along with 2 minimum contracts for a package of Bynum, Kwame, Crittenton, Cook, Sasha and possibly the inclusion of Jamaal Tinsley in the package. It is best to seek a 3rd team to take in Tinsley's contract by then, I'm hoping its Miami for Doleac and a signed and traded James Posey.

It is still a hard deal to complete by any standards. But I know deep within that a deal is imminent.

lakersforthewin
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Laker Package for O'Neal, Armstrong, and Harrison seems to be the best solution

poppintags08
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This trade could make sense:

Bynum, Crittenton, Kwame, Sasha, Cook and 2 future picks

for

Jermaine O'neal

I think Bynum and Crittenton are very good young pieces that Indi can get to go along with Granger and Diogu as their future core which is pretty good. With this trade, they can get a sure fire top 4 pick next year and a chance at OJ Mayo, Derick Rose or someother top notch prospect to add to their already solid young core. Also they have 2 picks from LA in the next 3 years which they can use to maybe trade away the bad contracts. They have 3 players who have long term deals and can do their best to trade them away for expiring contracts, maybe to Miami for J-Williams expiering contract.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/t ... &cash=

RandyPandy
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Nice analysis there Pareng Warren. I don't think Larry has a choice but to trade JO and get the cap relief he will get from the players that we will be giving up. I think they are just looking at the things needed for this trade to go down. Larry will be in cap trouble if he doesn't do the trade. We have the upperhand. Now it is up to us on how to take advantage of it...

griZZly64
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earL!

warrenweelim
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Repped High Quality Post

Take advantage in the sense that a deal might be in place. I love headlines like that of ESPN.

I could graciously add the 09 1st to the package as well just o convince Birdie. The other upside to it is, the East has gotten considerably stronger. The Pacers could not afford to add a New Jersey Powerhouse to the group. In that regard, they'd much rather help the Lakers get better.

Considering all the possibilities, we could be heading to camp with renewed motivations. Happy Days are back...

six.chris
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another great thread + analysis warren. and yes even though Indy isn't holding all the cards...we must remember that the lakers are basically get JO or go home at this point. Its no longer a thing were we can get KG, and Gasol seems to be staying put. so what now? We're in a stalemate with larry bird.. ouch! We must find a way to make our trash glitter like gold, and that's putting it nicely. And as you said. not trading JO will not benefit them...but i'm sure if they shop him around they can find him a team. maybe even the bobcats who have a lot of young talent they can trade...And why wouldn't they want JO..they already signed Jason Richardson..would be a decent 1-2 punch. so lakers should start buying some shinny spray cans and hope Indiana is blinded by it. and doesn't look to shop to other teams

RandyPandy
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It is easy to shop for teams that would want JO. The problem will be if JO stays with them or not because he will be a free agent. For example, If the Pacers will trade Jo to the Bobcats, as you suggested, JO will be like in Indiana again. That team will not advance and he will ultimately opt out. But if you do trade him, for example to the Lakers, he will immediately help out Kobe and scare the bejeezes out of the other WC teams. JO would not accept to be traded to the Bobcats.

I hope also that Kobe is keeping in tabs with the news about JO. Maybe he can do his part and talk to the FO to at least make a move as early as now so as not to be left behind again.

Diamondbull
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great analysis Warren! even if Bird is stuborn and doesnt trade him before the season starts, they will have to trade JO to either the Lakers or the Nets before the trading deadline because JO has already stated that if his team doesnt win he will opt out. and with the eastern conferance now even stronger, Indiana really has no chance of making the playoffs. which would mean JO would opt out at the end of the season and they would get nothing out of him. and as you also mentioned Warren they would be very much reluctant to trade within their own conferance. i have to rep this!

landon86
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nice thread man, repped

griZZly64
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earL

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