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vinny808
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Post subject: Significance of rest and winning a championship
 Posted: May 03, 2008 - 12:02 AM PST
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Die-Hard Laker Fan
Joined: Aug 11, 2007
Posts: 1065
  
votes: 15
Status: Offline
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With the Hawks forcing a game seven against the Celtics, a question struck my mind. I wondered whether there was a correlation between the number of games played equals winning a championship or not. The media and fans alike argued whether it was better for the Lakers to rest or if playing games and keeping rhythm was better. In the research I conducted, I gathered information back until 1980 to see whether a team won the championship and also played the fewer amount of games. I kept everything else constant. Here are the results:
............West.....East.....Least Win.....Most Win.....Tie
1980.....10.........12 ........x
1981.....15.........11 ........x
1982.....8.........15 ........x
1983.....11.........9 ........x
1984.....14.........16................................x
1985.....13.........15........ x
1986.....14.........12 ........x
1987.....12.........17 ........x
1988.....14.........16 ........x
1989.....11.........13 ..............................x
1990.....16.........15 ........x
1991.....14.........12 ........x
1992.....15.........16 .............................x
1993.....18.........13 ........x
1994.....18.........16 ........x
1995.....18.........17 .............................x
1996.....15.........12 ........x
1997.....14.........13 ........x
1998.....14.........15 .............................x
1999.....12.........15 ........x
2000.....17.........17 ...........................................x
2001.....11.........18 ........x
2002.....15.........16 ........x
2003.....18.........14 ........x
2004.....17.........18 .............................x
2005.....16.........18 ........x
2006.....17.........17 ...........................................x
2007.....16.........16 ...........................................x
2008.....4...........7
19 6 3
In conclusion, 19 Championships were won by the team that played a fewer amount of games in the post season. 6 was won by the team that played the most in the post season. 3 were tied in the amount of games played. The team that won the championship with the fewer amount of times won it 74% of the time. The team that won the championship playing more games won it 24% of the time. I threw out the 3 that tied in games. **Another thing, when the team that won the championship playing more games, it was only a difference by 2 or less games.** So maybe the more difference in rest, the better the chances of winnining.
With this said, It seems that rest is more important than rhythm. Maybe rhythm is not affected when the team gets more rest. Of course there could be other factors. Maybe the “better” team won the championship and also played fewer games because they were simply better and more dominant. Maybe rest is a key factor. If rest plays a key role, assuming the Celtics and Lakers eventually make it to the playoffs, Lakers played 4 so far, and Celtics onto game #7, the Lakers will have a better chance winning the playoffs.
I encourage all of you to critique and further develop ontop of my research because more questions will always arise. One might even find out if other things affect winning a championship, like home court advantage, or the importance of rebounding (According to Pat Riley, no rebounds = no championships). As I pointed out ealier, when the team that played more games won the championship, the difference between the amount of games played was only 2 games or less. Maybe someone could see if a bigger difference meant a better chance of sweeping in the finals, or the 'easier' it is for that team to win in the finals. That would be an interesting find.
I've always felt rest was more important than rhythm in the playoffs. Now theres some oomph to back it up.
I will post this in the veterans and general forum for feedback control. Thank you all.
We'll i'll be leaving back to Hawaii in a couple hours for pretty much an entire flight because finals is over. So hopefully you guys will give me feedback by then!
I will even take this a step further. If the Lakers can continue playing efficiently. And if the Lakers meet the Celtics in the finals - because the Celtics dominated with the starters playing a lot of minutes in the reg. season, I will say rest will play a HUGE factor and the Lakers will win with a sweep. (Now this is the Laker fan inside of me coming out)
***THe work of Vinny808*** |
Last edited by vinny808 on May 03, 2008 - 04:17 AM PST; edited 7 times in total
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warrenweelim
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Post subject:
Posted: May 03, 2008 - 01:44 AM PST
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Laker GM
Joined: May 11, 2007
Posts: 2841
votes: 31
Status: Offline
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Good Work Vinny... but stats like that is not really reliable unless you also determine homecourt, injury and all other things. But its nevertheless a good indicator. Just not absolute.
Good Job. |
_________________
SIM LEAGUE CHAMPS
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vinny808
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Post subject:
Posted: May 03, 2008 - 03:08 AM PST
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Die-Hard Laker Fan
Joined: Aug 11, 2007
Posts: 1065
votes: 15
Status: Offline
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| Yes, I totally agree with you. Many many other factors go into consideration on measuring playoff success. I had to keep everything else constant in order to see if there were any correlation or revelance. I found the team with more rest won most of the time. Of course if rest was the only factor teams would win 100% of that time with more rest. But that is not the case. 6 teams won while playing more games. It would be interesting to develope this and incorporate other factors or go into more detail about the findings. |
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